For decades, efforts to combat climate change have struggled to make a dent in global greenhouse gas emissions.
Despite numerous initiatives and agreements, emissions have continued to rise persistently.
However, this concerning trend may soon be reversing. Two major international climate agencies anticipate that 2024 could be the year global emissions finally start to decline.
Bloomberg NEF, a research firm, and the international Climate Analytics institute both suggest that global emissions might have peaked in 2023. Leonard Quong, head of Australian research at Bloomberg NEF, emphasized the rapid and substantial nature of this change, comparing it to the transformative shifts of the Industrial Revolution.
The driving forces behind this pivotal moment are the accelerating adoption of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles.
Fossil fuels are increasingly being replaced by cleaner alternatives, and this transition is spearheaded by none other than China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter.
To understand the magnitude of these changes, it is crucial to recognize the lasting impact of carbon dioxide.
This greenhouse gas lingers in the atmosphere for an extraordinarily long time, meaning that the emissions since the Industrial Revolution will continue to warm the planet for centuries.
Despite our awareness of this issue, emissions have continued to rise, exacerbating the problem significantly.
Furthermore, the brief reduction in emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic is not considered a lasting structural change.
According to Neil Grant, a senior climate and energy analyst at Climate Analytics, we need long-term shifts driven by the rollout of renewables and the decline of fossil fuels to mark a true peak in emissions.
The encouraging news is that renewable energy is gaining ground due to simple economics. In 2023, 30% of the world’s electricity came from renewable sources.
In many parts of the world, it is now cheaper to build new wind and solar energy facilities than any other form of carbon-intensive electricity supply.
This economic advantage is causing a natural shift away from coal and gas, independent of climate policies.
The solar energy sector, in particular, has seen remarkable progress. Over the past decade, the cost of solar modules has dropped by over 90%.
This significant reduction makes solar energy cheaper to produce than operating existing coal-fired power plants, making solar a key player in the transition to renewable energy.
China, leading the world in renewable energy deployment, installed more solar power last year alone than the rest of the world combined.
This rapid rise in renewable energy in China is expected to result in a significant decline in emissions from its electricity sector in the near future.
In addition to renewable energy, electric vehicles (EVs) are also playing a crucial role in reducing emissions.
In 2023, China accounted for over half of the world’s electric vehicles, cementing its position as the largest EV market and producer.
The widespread adoption of EVs is expected to cause global demand for oil to start declining within a few years.
While these trends are promising, experts caution against complacency. Even if emissions peak in 2024, the pace of reduction is critical.
Achieving significant reductions before the critical 2025 threshold is essential to avoid dangerous levels of global warming.
The upcoming years will be crucial in determining the trajectory of global emissions.
Although the current trends provide reasons for hope, continued efforts and acceleration of the renewable energy and electric vehicle adoption are essential to ensure a sustainable decline in emissions and a healthier planet for future generations.