SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has announced bold new plans for Mars exploration, with the first uncrewed flight to the Red Planet scheduled to take place in two years. This mission will test the reliability of the Starship’s ability to land intact on the Martian surface. According to Musk, if these initial landings are successful, the first crewed flights could happen just two years later, in 2028.
The timeline was shared by Musk on the social media platform X on September 7, 2024. He detailed that the uncrewed missions would take advantage of the next Earth-Mars transfer window, expected to open in two years. “The first Starships to Mars will launch in two years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens. These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars,” Musk wrote.
Should these uncrewed missions proceed without a hitch, Musk believes that the first human trips to Mars could occur in just four years. “If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in four years,” he added.
Musk’s vision for Mars isn’t just about exploration. He aims to establish a self-sustaining city on the Martian surface within 20 years. He believes that spreading human life across multiple planets will significantly increase the survival prospects of our species.
The announcement marks a slight adjustment from Musk’s earlier predictions. In April, he had claimed that Starship would be on Mars within five years, without clarifying if the mission would be crewed or uncrewed. Over the years, Musk has frequently updated his timelines for Mars missions. For instance, in 2016, he projected astronauts could reach Mars by 2025, and in 2020, he suggested humans could land on Mars by 2026. However, by 2022, he had shifted his estimate to 2029.
SpaceX’s Starship rocket has been undergoing rigorous uncrewed testing, potentially preparing it for NASA missions as well. NASA has contracted SpaceX to use Starship to ferry astronauts from lunar orbit to the moon’s surface under the Artemis program, with the first such mission anticipated as early as 2026. NASA’s investment, amounting to $2.9 billion, underscores the confidence in Starship’s capabilities.
SpaceX has been meticulous in its Starship development. In June 2024, the rocket achieved a successful splashdown in the Indian Ocean during its fourth test flight, after three initial tests that ended in explosions. Musk has hinted at further Starship tests within the year, indicating significant progress in readiness for Martian missions.
Before achieving Mars, SpaceX aims to assist NASA in making lunar landings routine through the Artemis program. This initiative aspires to create a lunar base at the moon’s south pole, leveraging its abundant water ice for drinking, breathing, and even as rocket fuel. It’s a stepping stone that could facilitate future manned missions to Mars, aligning with Musk’s long-term vision.
The ambitious plans by SpaceX and NASA signify an exciting era in space exploration, potentially transforming science fiction scenarios into reality within our lifetimes. If successful, Musk’s milestones could mark giant leaps not just for SpaceX but for humanity’s journey toward becoming a multiplanetary species.
While Musk’s timelines have been fluid, the intent and dedication remain steadfast. These forthcoming missions could pave the way for human expansion to Mars, heralding a new chapter in space exploration.