Elon Musk, the visionary CEO of SpaceX, has become synonymous with humanity’s dream of reaching Mars.
His ambitious plan to make humanity a “multiplanetary” species is bold, but recent discussions have raised questions about whether Musk will live to see this dream become a reality.
According to experts, the timeline is the main conundrum.
Aerodynamics expert Christopher Combs from the University of Texas suggests that Mars may not be safely accessible to humans for another 15 to 20 years.
If his prediction holds, Musk, who is currently 53, will be well into his 60s or 70s by the time a crewed mission is feasible.
This timeline could be stretched by SpaceX’s iterative approach to space mission design, which anticipates learning from initial failures.
Combs notes that this could significantly delay development, especially since opportunities to launch missions to Mars occur only once every 26 months—a cycle dictated by the alignment of Earth and Mars.
With only nine launch windows available in the next two decades, meeting the goal poses a steep challenge for SpaceX’s Starships.
Musk himself acknowledges these tight constraints.
In 2020, he candidly stated, “If we don’t improve our pace of progress, I’m definitely, you know, gonna be dead before we go to Mars.”
For Musk, reaching Mars is not just a professional ambition but a personal aspiration he hopes to witness within his lifetime.
Despite these hurdles, Musk maintains optimism.
He has announced plans to send an uncrewed Starship to Mars as early as the next Earth-Mars transfer window in 2026, with hopes of having humans embark on the journey within the subsequent eight years.
This view is shared by astrophysicist Peter Hague, who, after analyzing various factors, believes humans could potentially reach Mars by 2031, or at the latest, by 2033.
Whose outlook will prevail—Combs’ cautious prognosis or the more optimistic projections of Musk and Hague—remains to be seen.
What is undeniable is that SpaceX faces significant hurdles in its Martian quest, and with each passing year, the pressure mounts.
Regardless of the outcome, Musk’s relentless pursuit adds tension and excitement to one of humanity’s greatest aspirations.