Artificial intelligence (AI) is already reshaping many aspects of our lives, but its most significant, and perhaps most feared, impact may be on the job market. A recent study by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) has highlighted this concern by presenting startling statistics about the future of employment in both the United States and Mexico.
According to the IDB’s newly developed AI-Generated Index of Occupational Exposure, it is estimated that within the space of just one year, AI will affect 43 million jobs in the U.S. and 16 million jobs in Mexico.
The numbers are only set to rise over the coming years, with 60 million jobs in these two countries impacted within five years, and 70 million in the U.S. and 26 million in Mexico over the next decade.
Globally, the scale of this change is even more momentous. The index suggests that 980 million jobs could be affected within just one year, equating to about 28% of the global workforce. This figure is expected to grow to 44% in the next ten years.
Eric Parrado, chief economist at the IDB and co-author of the index, explains that these estimates highlight not just the potential job losses but also the vulnerability of various occupations to AI advancements. “We must have a plan for the impact that AI could have,” Parrado emphasizes, signaling the urgency of preparing for these changes.
While the index reflects occupations vulnerable to AI rather than direct job losses, the vast numbers involved underscore the significant transformation ahead – one that might rival the industrial revolution of the 19th century. Unlike the past, however, this technological shift is accelerating and requires quick adaptation.
Parrado remains optimistic about the changes, suggesting that AI has the potential to boost productivity. Nevertheless, the critical challenge lies in managing this transition effectively, ensuring that the displacement of jobs is balanced by the creation of new opportunities.
This adjustment, he argues, will depend significantly on education and retraining programs aimed at developing complementary skills to AI, such as critical thinking, creativity, and emotional intelligence.
The study also highlights that women and low-skilled workers are among the most vulnerable groups. In the U.S. and Mexico, women, who predominantly hold positions in office, administrative, service, and support roles, are likely to be more impacted by task automation, with 40% of women affected compared to 38% of men.
In terms of education and income levels, less educated workers and those in lower-income brackets will face higher risks. In Mexico, the impact will extend to the middle class as well.
Furthermore, specific occupations are more susceptible to automation, with roles like telephone operators, telemarketers, and machine operators at the top of the vulnerability list. In contrast, jobs in sports, teaching, and firefighting are among those expected to remain largely unaffected.
No detailed analysis has yet been conducted on how AI’s impact differs by race or origin. However, it is anticipated that African Americans and Latinos, who are more likely to hold lower-income jobs, will also be significantly impacted.
In light of these findings, the IDB study advocates for immediate proactive measures from both public and private sectors. These include robust retraining programs, improved social safety nets, ethical AI development, support for small businesses, and periodic job market evaluations.
Additionally, it urges the inclusion of AI education in school curriculums to help future generations adapt to this enduring technological shift.