Nearly three-quarters of the world’s population will face extreme weather changes within the next 20 years, reveals a new study by researchers from the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Norway. This alarming projection underscores the urgent need for comprehensive action against climate change to mitigate its dire effects.
Published in the journal Nature Geoscience, the study highlights how the combination of global warming and natural weather variations can lead to substantial shifts in rainfall and temperature over relatively short periods. These extreme changes will push weather events beyond what society and ecosystems can handle.
Dr. Carley Iles, the lead author at CICERO, explains, “We focus on regional changes because they are more directly relevant to people and ecosystems compared to global averages. We identified regions that are expected to experience significant shifts in extreme weather events over the coming decades.”
Under a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions remain high, areas like the Mediterranean, Northwestern and Southern America, and Eastern Asia could see sustained, unprecedented rates of change for twenty years or more. Many of these regions encompass low-income countries that are particularly vulnerable to such impacts.
Even with strong emission reduction efforts aligned with the Paris Agreement goals, 20% of the global population—around 1.5 billion people—will still experience drastic weather changes.
Dr. Bjørn H. Samset at CICERO states, “The best case we calculate is still 1.5 billion people being affected. The only way to manage this is to prepare for a much higher probability of extreme events in the next one to two decades.”
The consequences of these weather shifts could be severe, leading to increased instances of deadly heatwaves, flooding, and storms.
Dr. Jennifer Francis from the Woodwell Climate Research Center adds, “Like people in war zones becoming accustomed to constant bombing, we are growing deaf to what should be alarm bells regarding climate change.”
Regions experiencing high emissions will especially need to brace for these changes. “Heatwaves may cause heat stress and excess mortality among people and livestock, ecosystem disruption, reduced agricultural yields, difficulties in cooling power plants, and transportation issues, while extreme rainfall can result in flooding, infrastructure damage, reduced water quality, and more,” the study authors wrote.
For instance, a severe heatwave in Pakistan in 2022 was followed closely by unprecedented flooding, showcasing how interconnected and compounding extreme weather events can be.
“Society is particularly vulnerable to high rates of change in weather extremes,” notes the research team. Such events not only threaten lives but also strain resources and infrastructure.
While reducing emissions could prevent some of the worst outcomes, it can also immediately affect regions like Asia, where air pollution has somewhat masked the effects of global warming. Meteorologist Laura Wilcox from the University of Reading explains, “Rapid cleanup of air pollution, necessary for health, will combine with global warming, resulting in accelerated changes in extreme conditions, particularly influencing the Asian summer monsoons.”
The global community stands at a critical juncture where both adaptation and mitigation efforts are crucial. Without decisive action, these extreme weather changes are expected to impact a vast majority of the world’s population within the very near future.